7鏈�2鏃ラ潪杈�(n贸ng)澶滐紝榛冮噾甯傚牬杩庝締2026骞翠互渚嗘渶寮峰柈鏃ユ毚鎷夎鎯�銆傚寳浜檪闁�20:30缇庡湅鍕炲伐閮ㄥ叕甯�6鏈堥潪杈�(n贸ng)鏂板鍍�5.7钀汉锛岄仩浣庝簬甯傚牬闋愭湡鐨�11.3钀汉鍜屽墠鍊�17.2钀汉锛屽壍(chu脿ng)涓�2025骞�10鏈堜互渚嗘渶浣庡骞咃紝鏁�(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)鍏竷鍚庣従(xi脿n)璨ㄩ粌閲戜笉鍒板崐灏忔檪鍏�(n猫i)寰�4050缇庡厓鐩寸窔鎷夊崌鑷�4136.2缇庡厓/鐩庡徃锛堟疾2.61%锛�锛屽�暒閲戠従(xi脿n)鏈�绲傛敹鍫�4122.41缇庡厓/鐩庡徃锛堟疾2.27%锛�锛孋OMEX榛冮噾8鏈堝悎绱勬敹鍫辩磩4135.70缇庡厓/鐩庡徃锛岀従(xi脿n)璨�鐧介妧鍚屾澶ф疾3.12%鑷�60.91缇庡厓/鐩庡徃銆傜編鍏冩寚鏁�(sh霉)鎳夎伈鏆磋穼0.76%鑷�100.629鍓�(chu脿ng)鍏╁懆鏂颁綆锛�10骞存湡缇庡偟鏀剁泭鐜囧洖钀借嚦4.47%姘村钩銆�7鏈�3鏃ヤ簽甯傛棭鐩ゅ�暒閲戜氦鎶�4125缇庡厓闄勮繎楂樹綅鏁村浐锛孋OMEX榛冮噾鍫辩磩4135.70缇庡厓锛屽競鍫撮�插叆鐛ㄧ珛鏃ュ亣鏈熸竻娣′氦鎶曟ā寮�銆�
鍦嬪収(n猫i)绔�锛屾滑閲戜富鍔汚U2608澶滅洡锛�7鏈�3鏃ュ噷鏅�2:30鏀剁洡锛夊牨900.88鍏�/鍏嬨��7鏈�3鏃ユ棭鐩ゆ滑閲戜富閫ｅぇ骞呰烦绌洪珮闁嬪牨900鍏�/鍏�銆�
瀹忚闈細闈炶静(n贸ng)"鐐搁浄"鐩存帴鎽ф瘈鍔犳伅鏁樹簨
缇庡湅6鏈堥潪杈�(n贸ng)鏂板灏辨キ(y猫)5.7钀汉锛岃純甯傚牬闋愭湡11.3钀叞鏂亷鍗婏紝杓�5鏈�17.2钀毚璺�67%锛岀偤2025骞�10鏈堜互渚嗘渶浣庡柈鏈堝骞�銆傚埗閫犳キ(y猫)灏辨キ(y猫)娓涘皯1.2钀汉銆侀浂鍞キ(y猫)娓涘皯0.8钀汉銆佽嚚鏅傜敤宸ユ笡灏�1.5钀汉——鏈嶅嫏妤�(y猫)鎿村嫉寮曟搸鏄庨’鐔勭伀銆傚け妤�(y猫)鐜囧緸4.3%鍥炶惤鑷�4.2%鐪嬩技鐭涚浘浣嗕富鍥犲嫗鍕曞弮鑸囩巼涓嬫粦灏庤嚧鍒嗘瘝绺笡锛屽苟闈炲氨妤�(y猫)鏀瑰杽銆傛鍓岮DP"灏忛潪杈�(n贸ng)"9.8钀凡椤湶鐤叉厠(t脿i)锛孖SM鍒堕�犳キ(y猫)PMI鍥炶惤鑷�53.3鐗╁児鏀粯鏆撮檷9.1榛炶嚦73锛屾矁浠�缃曡琛ㄦ厠(t脿i)"閫氳劰棰ㄩ毆宸查檷浣�"——鏈懆涓夊ぇ榇挎淳淇¤櫉鍦ㄩ潪杈�(n贸ng)鏁�(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)鍏竷鍚庡舰鎴愬畬缇庡叡鎸�銆侰ME FedWatch椤ず9鏈堝姞鎭鐜囧緸闈炶静(n贸ng)鍓�66%椹熼檷鑷崇磩51%锛屽競鍫村皪骞村収(n猫i)鍐嶅姞鎭竴娆＄殑瀹氬児鍏ㄩ潰鐡﹁В銆傜編鍏冩寚鏁�(sh霉)鎬ラ�熻穼鐮�101闂滃彛涓�搴﹁Ц鍙�100.58鍏╁懆浣庨粸锛�10骞存湡缇庡偟鏀剁泭鐜囧緸4.50%鍥炶惤鑷�4.47%——闈炶静(n贸ng)鏁�(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)寰炴牴鏈笂鍕曟悥浜�"缍�(j墨ng)婵熼亷鐔�→鎸佺簩(x霉)鍔犳伅"鐨勬牳蹇冩晿浜嬮倧杓�銆�
7鏈�3鏃ョ編鍦嬬崹绔嬫棩鍋囨湡缇庤偂鍙婂偟甯備紤甯傦紝闈炶静(n贸ng)钀藉湴鍚庣洡闈㈠児鏍煎皣閹栧畾鏁村�嬮暦鍛ㄦ湯鎯呯窉銆備粖鏃ョ劇閲嶅ぇ鏁�(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)鍏竷锛屽競鍫撮�插叆娑堝寲妯″紡锛屼笅鍛ㄩ棞娉�7鏈�10鏃ョ編鍦�6鏈圕PI鏁�(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)鍙婃矁浠�鍚庣簩(x霉)琛ㄦ厠(t脿i)銆�
鍦扮罚闈細澶氬搱闁撴帴鏈冭珖鐒″姛鑰岃繑 鍦扮罚婧㈠児缍寔搴曢儴鏀拹
缇庝紛7鏈�1鏃ュ湪鍗″鐖惧鍝堥�氶亷鍗″鐖惧拰宸村熀鏂潶鏂℃棆鑸夎闁撴帴鏈冭珖锛岄噸榛炲湇绻炶惤瀵︿紛鏂槶鍫″倷蹇橀寗銆佽В鍑嶄紛鏈楀噸绲�(ji茅)璩囩敘(ch菐n)銆佺⒑?锛涢鏌查厭婢擃棐{鑸亱瀹夊叏涓夊ぇ鏍稿績璀伴銆傛渻璜囦互闁撴帴鏂瑰紡閫茶锛岀編浼婁唬琛ㄥ湗"娌掓湁闈㈠皪闈㈡渻鏅�"锛屾渻璜囩祼(ji茅)鏉熷悗鐒¤伅(li谩n)鍚堣伈鏄庣櫦(f膩)甯�锛屽悇鏂硅〃杩颁俊铏熺煕鐩�——浼婃湕鏂归潰寮疯(di脿o)灏庡綀鍟忛"姘镐笉璜囧垽"锛岀編鏂瑰墖绋辫珖鍒ゆ湁閫插睍浣嗘湭閬斿璩�(zh矛)绐佺牬?锛涢鏌查厭婢擃棐{鑸亱娴侀噺閫愭鎭㈠京浣嗛仩鏈?锛�?锛岄樋鑱�(li谩n)閰嬪拰绉戝▉鐗硅秮姗熸摯澶у師娌瑰嚭鍙ｉ噺鎼跺崰甯傚牬浠介銆傚湴绶ｆ孩鍍瑰皪閲戝児鍛堥洐鍚戞晥鎳夛細闈炶静(n贸ng)澶滈粌閲戞毚婕蹭富瑕佸彈鍔犳伅闋愭湡宕╁椹�(q奴)鍕曪紝鍦扮罚鍍靛眬鍍呯偤杓斿姪鏀拹銆傜暥鍓嶆补鍍逛綆浣嶉亱琛岋紙WTI 68.50缇庡厓/妗堕�艰繎闁嬫埌(zh脿n)鍓嶆按骞筹級鎰忓懗钁楅�氳劰闋愭湡浠嶅湪闄嶆韩閫氶亾锛屽湴绶ｉ洊鏈秷寮絾灏嶉噾鍍圭殑閭婇殯鎺ㄥ嫊鍔涘凡澶х偤寮卞寲銆�
渚涙噳绔細COMEX搴瓨寤剁簩(x霉)鍘诲寲 绀︾渚涙噳楂樹綅閬嬭
鍏ㄧ悆閲戠うQ1鐢�(ch菐n)閲忕董鎸佹鍙查珮浣嶏紝AISC鍗�(q奴)闁�1390-1715缇庡厓/鐩庡徃锛堥爯瑷�2026骞村悓姣旈檷5%锛�锛岀磹钂欑壒鍏ㄥ勾AISC鎸囧紩绱�1680缇庡厓鐢�(ch菐n)閲忛檷10%銆傚咕鍏�(n猫i)浜炵姝㈤粌閲戝師绀﹀嚭鍙ｃ�佸嵃灏肩壒瑷辨瑠(qu谩n)浣跨敤璨荤炕鍊嶈嚦14%绛夋斂绛栨摼鍕曟寔绾�(x霉)銆侰OMEX閲戝韩搴瓨7鏈�2鏃ュ牨27460952閲戣 鐩庡徃锛岃純鍓嶆湡寤剁簩(x霉)婧拰鍘诲寲鎱�(t脿i)鍕紝6鏈堜互渚嗙疮瑷堝幓鍖栫磩30鍣镐互涓�锛屾敞鍐婂�夊柈鍗犳瘮缍寔浣庝綅锛屽鐗╀氦鍓插鍔涢倞闅涚疮绌嶄絾閬犳湭瑙哥櫦(f膩)"鎿犲��"琛屾儏銆傜暥鍓�4130缇庡厓閲戝児璺滱ISC涓婃部1715缇庡厓浠嶆湁绱�2.4鍊嶇珐娌�锛岀う浼佸苟鐒℃亹鎱屾�ф笡鐢�(ch菐n)鍕曞姏銆�
闇�姹傜锛氬ぎ琛�5鏈堝噲璩奸噾41鍣� 娑堣不璨犲弽楗嬩粛鍦ㄦ繁鍖�
涓栫晫榛冮噾鍗�(xi茅)鏈冩渶鏂版暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)椤ず鍏ㄧ悆澶5鏈堝噲璩奸噾41鍣搁噸杩斿噲璨峰叆锛岃垏姝ゅ墠6鏈堣(di脿o)鐮旂祼(ji茅)璜栵紙89%澶闋愯▓鏈締12鏈堝鎸�銆�45%鑷韩灏囧鎸佸壍(chu脿ng)姝峰彶鏂伴珮锛夊舰鎴愬嵃璀�銆備腑鍦嬪ぎ琛�5鏈堝鍎�32钀泿鍙革紙绱�10鍣革級閫ｇ簩(x霉)19鏈堝鎸佽嚦7496钀泿鍙稿壍(chu脿ng)15鍊嬫湀鍠湀鏂伴珮锛屽憟鐝�(xi脿n)"浣庝綅澶氳卜"鍙嶅悜鎿嶄綔鐗瑰緛銆傞粌閲戝凡瓒呰秺缇庡偟鎴愮偤鍏ㄧ悆绗竴澶у畼鏂瑰劜鍌欒硣鐢�(ch菐n)锛�27% vs 22%锛�锛屽ぎ琛岃臣閲戝簳鍊夌偤閲戝児妲�(g貌u)绛戦暦鏈熷湴鏉垮児銆備絾娑堣不绔矤鍙嶉鎸佺簩(x霉)锛氫竴瀛ｅ害鍏ㄧ悆閲戦＞闇�姹傚悓姣旈檷25%涓湅闄�31%鍗板害闄�19%锛屽湅鍏�(n猫i)閲戦＞闆跺敭鍍瑰緸骞村垵绱�1713鍏�/鍏嬮珮榛炴粦钀借嚦绱�1200鍏�/鍏嬮檮杩�锛�"瓒婅穼瓒婁笉璨�"鐨勬秷璨昏矤寰挵(hu谩n)鏈鏀硅銆傛姇璩囩ETF娴佸叆浠嶉’璎规厧浣嗛倞闅涙敼鍠�——SPDR Gold Trust 7鏈�1鏃ユ寔鍊�1005.362鍣革紙+0.285鍣革級锛岀祩绲�(ji茅)姝ゅ墠閫ｇ簩(x霉)鏁�(sh霉)鏃ュ噲娴佸嚭鐨勯牴鍕�銆傚湅鍏�(n猫i)鑿畨榛冮噾ETF瑕�(gu墨)妯″緸骞村垵鍗冨剟鍥炶惤鑷崇磩875鍎勫厓锛屼絾杩�5鏃ユ浘閫嗗嫝鍑堟祦鍏ヨ繎6鍎勫厓鍚庡啀搴﹁綁(zhu菐n)娴佸嚭锛屾妲�(g貌u)鑸囨暎鎴跺崥寮堝姞鍔囥��
姗熸(g貌u)瑙�榛烇細楂樼洓鍫呭畧4900 鑺辨棗鐣忕府鑷�4000 鍒嗘宄板��
楂樼洓缍寔2026骞存湯4900缇庡厓/鐩庡徃鐩鍍�锛岃獚鐐哄洓鍊嬪鏈堝洖瑾�(di脿o)骞堕潪鐗涘競绲傜祼(ji茅)锛屼絾鎻愮ず鑻ュ叏鐞冨競鍫村妵鐑堟尝鍕曞紩鐧�(f膩)娴佸嫊鎬у嵄姗燂紝閲戝児浠嶅彲鑳介殠娈垫�ф壙澹�?锛涖剢鐓歌仢?n猫i)浜屽害涓嬭(di脿o)锛�3鍊嬫湀鐩4000缇庡厓妤电鐪�3500銆傛懇鏍瑰ぇ閫氬潎鍍�5243浣嗗勾鏈�6000鐩涓嶈畩锛屽痉閵�Q3鐩4300/Q4鐩4800锛堜笅瑾�(di脿o)22%锛夛紝澶ф懇5200缇庡厓銆佺憺閵�5600缇庡厓銆佹福鎵�5500缇庡厓銆佹境鏂�5800缇庡厓銆傛姇琛岀洰妯欏垎姝у緸4900-6000缇庡厓鍗�(q奴)闁撴敹绐勮嚦3500-6000缇庡厓妤电鏁ｉ粸锛屽弽鏄犲姞鎭爯鏈熻垏澶璩奸噾鍏╁ぇ鏍稿績璁婇噺鍦ㄤ簩瀛ｅ害褰㈡垚纰惧寮忓皪娌�銆傛妧琛�(sh霉)闈㈢湅锛屾棩绶歊SI-14寰�26鎬ラ�熸媺鍗囪嚦绱�42鑴洟瓒呰常鍗�(q奴)锛屽懆绶歊SI-14浠嶈檿绱�28浣庝綅浣嗗簳閮ㄧ祼(ji茅)妲�(g貌u)鍒濈従(xi脿n)锛屽�暒閲慥鍨嬬獊鐮�4100缇庡厓鍚庝笂鏂归樆鍔�4150/4177锛�21鏃ュ潎绶氾級/4200缇庡厓锛屼笅鏂规敮鎾�4100/4050/4000缇庡厓銆傚懆绶氱礆鍒ラ�ｇ簩(x霉)鍥涘懆闄扮窔鍚庢湰鍛ㄦ湁鏈涢搴︽敹闄�锛岃嫢浠婃棩瀹堜綇4100缇庡厓涓婃柟锛屾妧琛�(sh霉)闈㈠簳閮ㄧ⒑瑾嶄俊铏熷皣澶у箙澧炲挤銆�
浠婃棩璧板嫝闋愭脯
闈炶静(n贸ng)5.7钀竟搴曟懅姣�鍔犳伅鏁樹簨锛�9鏈堝姞鎭鐜囧緸66%椹熼檷鑷�51%——閲戝児鍠棩鏆存疾2.6%绐佺牬4130缇庡厓锛岀偤鏈吉鑷�5598缇庡厓楂橀粸鍥炴挙浠ヤ締鏈�寮峰柈鏃ュ弽褰�銆備粖鏃ョ編鍦嬬崹绔嬫棩鍋囨湡娴佸嫊鎬у亸钖勶紝甯傚牬娑堝寲鏄ㄦ棩鏆存疾鍚庡ぇ姒傜巼楂樹綅闇囪暕鏁村浐锛屽�暒閲�4100-4180缇庡厓鍗�(q奴)闁撱�佹滑閲戜富鍔�895-910鍏�/鍏嬪崁(q奴)闁撻亱琛�銆傜煭鏈熷埄澶氬洜绱犻’钁楀崰鍎�(y艒u)锛氬姞鎭爯鏈熷穿濉�+缇庡厓璧板急+缇庡偟鏀剁泭鐜囦笅琛�+澶鎸佺簩(x霉)璩奸噾妲�(g貌u)鎴愬洓绶氬叡鎸�锛涙經鍦ㄥ埄绌轰締鑷补鍍规寔绾�(x霉)浣庤糠澹撲綆閫氳劰闋愭湡銆丒TF璩囬噾闈㈠皻鏈⒑瑾嶈定鍕㈡�у洖娴�銆佺崹绔嬫棩鍚�7鏈�10鏃PI鏁�(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)浠嶅瓨璁婃暩(sh霉)銆傝嫢涓嬪懆CPI寤剁簩(x霉)閫氳劰闄嶆韩瓒ㄥ嫝锛屽姞鎭爯鏈熸湁鏈涢�蹭竴姝ュ洖钀借嚦40%涓嬫柟锛岄噾鍍规垨鎸戞埌(zh脿n)4200-4250缇庡厓涓湡闃诲姏鍗�(q奴)銆備粖鏃ユ牳蹇冮棞娉細鍋囨湡娴佸嫊鎬т笅璩囬噾闈㈠嫊鎱�(t脿i)銆佺編浼婂鍝堥枔鎺ユ渻璜囧悗绾�(x霉)銆佹矁浠�鏄惁閫蹭竴姝ラ噵鏀鹃纯娲句俊铏�銆�